Entradas etiquetadas como Encuestas
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Their summary, with only 24% of the vote counted: 34% Juan Orlando Hernández, 28% Xiomara Castro, 20% Mauricio Villeda, 15% Salvador Nasrallah.
The margin dividing the two top candidates is quite small: 249,660 to 202,501– so less than 50,000 votes separate LIBRE and the Partido Nacional. The eligible electorate is 5.3 million.
Does this tell us who will win? no, it does not. We do not know which results are included; there is no way to project from likely voting patterns in areas already counted to other similar areas.
Long before the TSE broadcast these partial counts, the Honduran press owned by supporters of Hernández was calling the election for him, based on exit polling by Ingenieria Gerencial. This is the same firm that did polling for the Partido Nacional, those private polls that were alluded to during the campaign but never published.
Meanwhile, LIBRE, relying on other exit polls, saw its candidate emerging as the winner. Without a newspaper ready to declare Xiomara Castro the winner, this would only matter if you were someone (like us) who expects exit polls in Honduras to be inherently unreliable– and thus expect contradictory results.
Before the TSE circulated their preliminary counts, Xiomara Castro announced that she has been elected; on twitter, the statement read
Con los resultados que he recibido de boca de urna de todo el país, puedo decirles: Soy la Presidenta de Honduras. [With the results that I have received from the edge of the ballotbox from throughout the country, I can say to you: I am the President of Honduras.]
This at least should serve to prevent all the Honduran press from prematurely calling the election for Hernández. Of course, it also has opened Castro up to critique from pundits nationally and internationally.
Meanwhile, Bloggings by Boz tweeted
I analyzed the exit poll data with an adjusted turnout model and got 31.5% to 31% in favor of Hernandez, well within any margin of error.
Except for the absolute number (we were kicking around 34-35% in discussions internally) that sounds about right to us: two diametrically opposed candidates separated by a threadbare margin. Not 6%– this election should turn on 1-2% of the final vote count.
El órgano electoral permitirá a las compañías, brindar resultados a boca de urna una vez finalizadas las elecciones.
El Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) autorizó, hasta la fecha, a cinco empresas encuestadoras para que brinden resultados a boca de urna, dos horas después de que concluyan las elecciones generales en Honduras.
El secretario general de TSE , Alejandro Martínez, informó este martes que dichas empresas recibieron una notificación por medio de la cual el Tribunal condicionó que todo resultado que arrojen debe ser conocido antes por el organismo electoral.
Martínez reiteró que ciertos resultados solo pueden hacerse públicos luego de dos horas del cierre de las urnas electorales.
Para respetar y garantizar los debidos procedimientos el día de las elecciones, los medios de comunicación de Honduras firmarán un pacto con el TSE este jueves 21 de noviembre, para que no se revelen resultados antes del tiempo estipulado.
El TSE advirtió que aplicará la ley a quienes violen las disposiciones establecidas en cuanto al silencio electoral , así como a la divulgación de resultados o encuestas el día de las elecciones.
Este domingo 24 de noviembre, un total de 5.3 millones de hondureños aptos para ejercer el sufragio, han sido convocados a asistir a las urnas.
Unas tres empresas ya solicitaron autorización ante el Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) para llevar a cabo encuestas a boca de urna, que podrán publicar despúes de las dos horas transcurridas las votaciones del próximo 24 de noviembre, declaró el titular de la entidad colegiada, David Matamoros Batson.
El funcionario informó que “esas tres empresas están siendo autorizadas, les falta alguna documentación y estamos poniendo como condición en qué consiste la muestra, a través de qué medio la divulgarán y previo a su difusión nos tienen que dar una copia”.
El duplicado de esa encuesta no será para su validación por parte del TSE, sino que permitirá conocer con detalles los resultados que provienen del campo, especificó.
Según el artículo 182 de la Ley Electoral y de las Organizaciones Políticas se restringe la divulgación de los sondeos a pie de urna antes de haber transcurrido 120 minutos del cierre de la justa democrática a nivel nacional.
FIRMA DE PROTOCOLO
“Si los partidos políticos cuesta que se pongan de acuerdo, miremos los medios cuánto demoran; nosotros no somos los auspiciadores, ojala que lo puedan firmar y acudir como testigos de ese compromiso”, expresó Matamoros Batson.
Aunque se desconoce la fecha exacta donde alrededor de 30 medios de comunicación nacional se comprometerán al cumplimiento de la legislación electoral el último domingo de este mes, cualquier empresa deberá de abstenerse de hacer úblikcos los resultados de sondeos a boca de urna de 5:00 a 7:00 de la tarde, indicó.
El TSE espera que al menos 30 medios de comunicación nacional se comprometan a mantener un comportamiento informativo adecuado durante la elección del 24 de noviembre.
On Nov. 24 Honduras will hold a presidential election that could usher in a new era. The country’s politics have been long dominated by the conservative National party and the slightly more centrist Liberal party. But a new party, Libre, has put forward a presidential candidate who has led polling for much of the past several months.
The candidate is Xiomara Castro, the wife of former Liberal party President Mel Zelaya, who was ousted in a military coup in 2009. Despite his affiliation with the Liberal party, Zelaya strayed from the traditional party line and alienated entrenched interests by proposing modest land reforms and wage increases, among other policies. Coup leaders claimed that a planned national referendum on constitutional reform was a veiled attempt to illegally overturn the one-term limit for presidents. Zelaya’s unceremonious removal elicited quick condemnation from the Organization of American States and leaders across the hemisphere. In the coup’s aftermath, a range of grassroots organizations coalesced into the National Front for Popular Resistance and formed the Libre party.
The newly elected president will take the helm of a country beset not only by poverty and structural inequality, but violence that threatens its social fabric. While Honduras undeniably has an element of drug- and gang-related violence, the climate of fear has heightened for certain key figures in civil society, including journalists, lawyers, human rights defenders, campesinos, community leaders, students and increasingly those associated with the opposition party. A recent report by human-rights organization Rights Action highlighted the escalating political violence that disproportionately targets those associated with the Libre party, documenting 18 members killed and 15 more victims of armed attacks in the last eighteen months, while noting that the total numbers were likely greater. Candidates from other parties have been targeted as well, although at a significantly lesser rate.
If democracy is to flourish in Honduras, such violence and intimidation must not be tolerated, either by interests within the country or by other nations. Especially given its historical involvement in Honduras, the U.S. government must take a strong stance against those who would threaten the right of all Hondurans to elect their leaders in free and fair elections.
Libre’s reform fight
For Hondurans understandably preoccupied with physical safety, one major difference among the parties is their proposed response to the violence. The Honduran police are widely mistrusted, notoriously corrupt and stand accused of widespread human-rights abuses. National party candidate Juan Hernandez supports continuing the policy of current President Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo of militarizing internal security. In August, Hernandez proposed a hybrid military force to fight internal crime, which received unanimous approval in Honduras’ Congress. Hernandez’s stance raises alarm among some analysts and activists who note that military personnel are trained in warfare, not traditional police functions. Moreover, the military has committed grave human-rights abuses, including the recent killing of peaceful protestor Tomas Garcia. While not categorically opposed to the use of the military for policing at the borders to combat drug-trafficking, Castro supports a community-based approach to crime. This approach favors neighborhood crime watches and recruiting police officers from local communities; such alternatives have seen great success in Nicaragua.
The violence in Honduras has captured the attention of U.S. legislators. A June 2013 letter signed by 24 Senators requested that the State Department assess the efforts of the Honduran government to uphold the rule of law and end impunity for police and military misconduct; to ensure that U.S. assistance does not flow to security forces reasonably suspected of engaging in human-rights violations; and to do what it can to promote elections that are “free, fair and peaceful.” The letter closed by urging Secretary of State John Kerry to firmly denounce rights abuses in Honduras, as he did when he chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Last month, with the Honduran elections looming, three members of the House of Representatives also wrote to Kerry to voice their alarm. The congressmen cited a loss of U.S. credibility in the region after the State Department prematurely validated the outcome of the 2009 post-coup election before the votes had even been counted, disregarding the illegitimacy of the regime of interim de facto President Roberto Micheletti and ignoring violent repression. They urged Kerry to avoid a similar mistake this time. The congressmen expressed concern that power has been concentrated in the hands of the ruling National party (in part “through illegal means”), which controls all government institutions — including the military, judiciary and electoral authority — which can make fraud hard to detect and remedy. The lawmakers also questioned the ascension of the military forces in policing functions that may influence the electoral process.
With voters split among three leading parties, making an outright majority unlikely, observers are concerned about potential fallout from the election. Libre’s platform supports a more inclusive and egalitarian government; promises anti-poverty measures focused on health, education and infrastructure development; and espouses polices aimed not merely at suppressing violence, but at dismantling the conditions that engender it. The party also supports the creation of a national assembly in which historically excluded groups could take part in reforming the government through the participatory formation of a new constitution.
Castro’s victory could threaten the status quo of pervasive social, economic and political inequality and the elites who benefit from it. This is why concerns about fraud are so widespread. Even if Castro wins the election, malfeasance in the less-closely watched legislative and municipal elections could just as effectively thwart reforms as her electoral defeat.
Honduras sits at a critical juncture. Conditions for free and fair elections cannot be evaluated by a snapshot view of election day; they must be established well before and endure well after the vote. The campaigns that precede the vote tally, as well as the political organizing that follows it, must be free of intimidation, repression and fraud. Whatever the outcome of the election, it is certain that change will not come easily in Honduras. Entrenched interests are unlikely to yield power without a fight, especially to a coalesced social movement comprised of those traditionally excluded from power that hope to transform the economic and political landscape into something they believe represents the interests of all Hondurans.
Given the stakes for their country’s future, Hondurans must be free and secure to cast a vote that best advances their individual and collective interests. The Obama administration must send a strong and unequivocal signal that it is paying close attention to the conditions necessary for true participatory democracy to flourish. A meaningful statement from the administration should go beyond platitudes encouraging free and fair elections by demanding an end to threats and intimidation, insisting that observers will be alert to the possibility of fraud and reassuring Hondurans and the global community that the U.S. government is committed to responding to credible allegations. And if reasonable questions arise about the legitimacy of the election, the U.S. must side with justice and democracy and not repeat its 2009 mistake.
Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of Al Jazeera America.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Today El Heraldo published the results of the latest, and last, CID Gallup poll in the presidential race.
Their headline: At one month before the elections, JOH one point advantage over Xiomara.
Our headline: Honduran Presidential Election Enters Final Stage in a Statistical Tie.
Based on polling conducted October 6-15, the CID Gallup poll reportedly finds voters who intend to vote breaking 28% for the Partido Nacional (Juan Orlando Hernández), 27% for LIBRE (Xiomara Castro), 17% for the Partido Liberal (Mauricio Villeda), and 9% for the Anti-Corruption Party (Salvador Nasrallah), with 3% each for the candidacies of Andres Pavon and Romeo Vasquez Velasquez, and a reported 3% “do not know/declined to respond”.
The absolute numbers in these Gallup polls are always higher than those in other polls, apparently because they are not including the voters who say they may not vote. The trends are clear when we look at the Gallup polling data over time: Nasralla continues to slide down; Villeda has drawn a small number of voters as the Anti-Corruption party declined; but the main increase tracking the decreases in the Anti-Corruption Party is in the institutional Partido Nacional.
There is evidence in this latest poll, as there was previously in the fine grained data from CESPAD, that party affiliation is breaking down. While the Liberal Party was identified as the party affiliation by 22% of those polled, Villeda draws only 17% of the vote. Similarly, while Hernández has a reported 28% of the intended vote, 35% of those polled identified as Partido Nacional members.
CID Gallup doesn’t let us speculate on where those other Partido Liberal and Nacional voters are going; CESPAD, though, showed in August that 23% of Liberal Party voters then favored LIBRE, as did 7.6% of Partido Nacional voters not favoring Hernández, with almost the same number then planning to vote for Nasrallah.
El Heraldo‘s story reports on a number of other polls, some of which, like Paradigma, we have been steadily tracking. These minor polls range from one by Opinión y Analísis that has Hernández at 28.1%, Castro at 23%, and Villeda at 20.1%; to TecniMerk showing Castro winning with 31.9%, Hernández at 22.8%, and Villeda at 13.2%.
While these two minor polls should be questioned due to the wide margins of victory they project, not seen in other polls, they are at least consistent with the other polling that shows LIBRE and the Partido Nacional running head to head. A third minor poll mentioned by El Heraldo, from a firm called Inteligence, seems anything but credible, as it is alone in having the Partido Liberal ahead, with 34.8% of the vote, leading the Partido Nacional at 28.33% and supposedly showing LIBRE in third place at 16,15%. It is almost as if this poll inadvertently reversed LIBRE and the Partido Liberal.
One of these candidates will receive the most votes in November. If election monitoring prevents fraud– a big if in Honduras– that same candidate will become the next president.
The current polling data do not allow identification of a clear leader, but do tell us that the traditional two party system has been effectively challenged for the first time in Honduran history: LIBRE and the Partido Nacional are the clear leaders vying for control of the presidency, and one of these did not exist at the time of the last election.
Whatever the outcome, the political landscape has changed in Honduras.
Monday, October 21, 2013
Where are these additional voters coming from? Two possibilities present themselves.
The number of voters answering “none of the above” declined 2.8%. At the same time, the number declining to state a preference went up by 1.3%, so it is quite possible that what we are seeing in those two categories is mostly the same pool of uncommitted voters, answering the pollsters slightly differently.
The more interesting possibility we see here is that the slight movement to Juan Orlando Hernández– if it is real, and not just statistical noise– is coming from Liberal Party voters who know that Mauricio Villeda is not viable, and find the pro-business, pro-security centrism of Hernández more acceptable than the mild social democratic progressivism of LIBRE. In the latest poll, Villeda declined 1.3%, from 12% in September to 10.7% now.
It isn’t particularly surprising that LIBRE’s support has flattened– actually, it is surprising it hasn’t been more badly affected by the negative campaigning going on. Whether it is distributing fake LIBRE flyers that make exaggerated claims that LIBRE will make Honduras into another Cuba, or Oscar Alvarez in El Heraldo portraying LIBRE as a threat to people’s safety because the party opposes the militarized police, or the republication of Roger Noriega’s insane argument that constitutional reform would “open the country to drug trafficking”, this is a dirty contest. And then there’s the string of assassinations of LIBRE candidates and activists, documented by Rights Action.
So it might be worth making two last points, before this very modest difference between the two lead candidates is interpreted as definitive.
First, the Partido Nacional claims they have a private poll showing their candidate 7 points ahead, not reflected in the latest poll. This is especially interesting because today Oscar Alvarez specifically was quoted as claiming,
various polls such as Paradigma place JOH very far above the candidate Xiomara Castro.
Must be some other “Paradigma”, because this one has this race continuing to be closely contested.
The candidate for one of the two traditional parties, enjoying all the advantages of organization, control of the entire government, and benefiting from a media campaign to demonize his competitor, is struggling to pull past the candidate of a new party with none of those advantages.
Second: 30.8% of the respondents still either declined to state a preference or declared an intention not to vote for any of the listed candidates.
So the leading candidate in this historic election remains “None of the Above”.
|Written by Joe Sammut|
|Friday, 18 October 2013 15:02|
The imminent Honduran presidential elections have been met with polls published by a surfeit of different polling firms. Unfortunately, however, these are notably inconsistent and show significant differences in their results. While the majority project Xiomara Castro, wife of the deposed President Zelaya, as the winner, there is a notable divergence in the size of the lead. In the scant coverage that they have given, the international press has paid almost exclusive attention to the polls conducted by the noted U.S. polling company, CID-Gallup.
Gallup has a lofty reputation in the U.S. as the first modern pollster. It accurately predicted the result of the 1936 presidential election by using modern sampling methods, and in the process destroyed the reputation of the Literary Digest poll, which had previously been considered the most accurate because of its much larger sample. This demonstrated the importance of representative sampling in order to reliably predict voting intentions. However, in Honduras, Gallup’s polling data has been divergent from actual electoral results, suggesting a bias towards the (right-wing) National Party.
This is important as Gallup is the most prolific, widely quoted and one of the longest standing pollsters in Honduras. In 2005, the last relatively free election in Honduras,1 Gallup in two separate polls predicted poll leads of 8 percent and 16 percent respectively in favor of the National Party candidate, Porfirio Lobo. These polls, coming just weeks before2 the actual election, were remarkably divergent from the actual result that Manuel Zelaya won with 45.6 percent of the vote to Lobo’s 42.2. This raises questions about the reliability of the recent poll by Gallup, paid for by the National Party controlled Congress, ahead of the coming election showing Xiomara Castro de Zelaya with a lead —within the margin of error— of just 2 percent.
While it is credible to suggest that Gallup has a National Party bias given its previous polling record, it is difficult to assess the other pollsters. A firm called Harris Le Vote, which in a 2005 poll recorded a similar lead for Zelaya to the actual result of the 2005 election, released a poll in April showing a lead for Xiomara Castro of 5 points but they have not released any more recent polls.
This is the first election for many of the other polling firms, which means that their reliability cannot be inferred from previous results. There is, however, a marked divergence in the polling results of these new firms. All of them so far show Castro in the lead ranging from TecniMerk, which shows a respectable lead of around 10 points, to Paradigma which shows a lead of 0.9 percent.8 They also diverge strongly in the candidates they position in second place, which alternates between the National Party candidate, Juan Orlando Hernández, and the populist anti-corruption candidate Salvador Nasralla.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to ascertain which of the polling companies is the most reliable. Ultimately polling companies in Honduras, like in other countries in Latin America, tend to be opaque in their methodology and sampling methods, and highly variable in their reliability. A recent poll by Global Business, which did not provide a detailed methodology but did at least acknowledge that it was likely to be biased towards affluent and urban Hondurans, reported a poll lead for Castro of 34.9 percent to 29.6 percent for Nasralla. If this is correct then it implies that the poll lead for Xiomara Castro is closer to the 10 percent lead as shown by TecniMerk than the 1-2 percentage point lead suggested by Gallup and Paradigma.
1The 2009 election, which National Party candidate Porfirio Lobo won by a landslide, is distinct in that it came after a coup d’etat, and within a context of political repression and extreme disarray in the Liberal Party. , and a boycott by factions of the resistance movement against the coup. There have also been questions raised about the validity of the results.
3 AP, “Opposition Party Leading in Honduras Presidential Polls,” The Associated Press, November 15, 2001.
4 AP, “Gobierno de Maduro El Más Corrupto de Honduras, Según Gallup,” The Associated Press, November 03, 2005.
El 77% de hondureños encuestados por CID Gallup dijo estar de acuerdo en que los militares patrullen en las calles.
San Pedro Sula. Para los hondureños, el crimen y la violencia son los dos grandes problemas que el Gobierno debe enfrentar; y ante esta realidad, la salida de la Policía Militar a las calles ha empezado a generar confianza entre los pobladores.
Resultados de la reciente encuesta de CID Gallup revelaron que la mayoría de hondureños apoya que los militares se sumen a las acciones de patrullaje.
En la medición publicada en septiembre, se conoció que el 77% de las personas consultadas están de acuerdo con que los militares patrullen en las calles, el 18% en desacuerdo y el restante 5% no respondió.
Esas cifras evidencian el apoyo que recibe la Policía Militar de la ciudadanía. Ellos desde el 14 de octubre comenzaron operaciones en las calles en zonas “calientes” de Tegucigalpa y San Pedro Sula.
La presencia de los militares en las vías públicas da un respiro a la población ante la inseguridad y las dificultades económicas que son calificadas como las principales preocupaciones que tienen los hondureños.
Entre el 6 y el 12 de septiembre, CID Gallup realizó un muestreo tomando la opinión de 1,228 hondureños en 16 de los 18 departamentos del país, donde para el 32% de la población consultada considera que el crimen, la violencia y el narcotráfico son los problemas que más les genera intranquilidad.
Estas amenazas que vive de la sociedad generaron que el Congreso Nacional aprobara el 22 de agosto de este año la creación de la Policía Militar como medida para combatir la criminalidad.
La formación de este nuevo cuerpo de seguridad recibió fuertes críticas por organismos de derechos humanos, que la califican como un “retroceso” en la desmilitarización de la sociedad, iniciada en la década de 1990.
Pese a esos cuestionamientos, la encuesta de opinión reflejó la aceptación de la población en la Policía Militar, la que ven como la única esperanza para devolver la tranquilidad en el país y eso se refleja en el 77% de encuestados que ve con buenos ojos que los militares formen parte de la seguridad en el país.
“Tenemos más confianza en los militares y si a ellos los han preparado para ser un grupo de apoyo al trabajo de la Policía bienvenido. Estamos confiando en los policías militares y con solo ver la presencia de ellos en las calles nos genera respeto”, dijo la sampedrana Esther Martínez.
Para los militares, el resultado de la encuesta es un reto, saben que deben responder a las expectativas que tiene la ciudadanía en ellos y prometen que en corto y mediano plazo el trabajo coordinado que hacen dará los frutos que la sociedad espera.
“Agradecemos la confianza de la población en las Fuerzas Armadas. Sabemos que tenemos que trabajar duro, pero es un trabajo dirigido, guiado hacia objetivos concretos que son los que nos darán los puntos que debemos atacar para ir desarticulando a las bandas y grupos criminales que han tomado barrios y colonias en las principales ciudades del país. Solo les pedimos tiempo, que no los vamos a defraudar”, indicó Héctor René Ponce, Comandante de la 105 Brigada de Infantería.
Después de dos meses de entrenamiento, los mil hombres distribuidos en dos batallones de la Policía Militar del Orden Público, salieron a las calles. La nueva fuerza de seguridad se estrenó interviniendo la segunda colonia más insegura de Tegucigalpa, la colonia Flor del Campo, adonde ayer eran recibidos los pelotones de policías con buenos ojos por los pobladores, quienes comenzaron a verlos operar con registros a vehículos y personas en esta colonia.
“Constantemente hay asaltos en la colonia, no solo en las unidades del transporte, sino también a los pobladores que nos vemos a merced de los delincuentes desde que salimos de las casas.
Que la Policía Militar escogiera esta colonia para operar nos alegra porque los asaltos y crímenes disminuirán, esperamos que estén con nosotros durante varios días”, dijo el poblador José Arturo Benítez.
Los policías militares desde el lunes trabajan en el reconocimiento de áreas conflictivas en las que requieren de información para ejecutar operativos.
viernes, 11 de octubre de 2013
Por Giorgio Trucchi | LINyM